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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: November 4th, 2023

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  • This is a good thing and a bad thing.
    I’d agree that there may well be less unity between states. I believe that’s actually what our founders intended- individual states united, without local/state politics being an afterthought.
    Problem is our system in concept is based on the idea that the only good source of authority for how to govern is the people who are governed taking an active interest in their own government. Sadly that kind of engaged population hasn’t been the case for a while. Sadly the ones who are pushing for this are more so our conservatives- not for any useful reason but because it gives them more ability to set discriminatory policies against gay people and enforce religion based socially conservative policy in primarily conservative states.

    IMHO the only thing that can save us is if the American people once again take active interest in the running of their government. This is easier said than done.


  • Sadly I don’t think it’s intentional. Our education is increasingly focused on tests over critical thinking- and somewhere along the line we decided it’s more harmful socially to hold an underperforming kid back than to put him in the next grade unprepared. We’re now having problems with college professors having to rework the course material to account for the fact that some students can’t read well if at all (I really wish I was kidding). Meanwhile our population too distracted trying to make ends meet, and so we are easy to exploit with extreme rhetoric. And our news is corporate focused on eyeballs over education so the problem gets worse.
    I’m sorry that kind of culture is spreading :( I would strongly encourage you focus on maintaining your educational systems to a high standard.

    I love my country but I’m concerned it may literally be too late to save us and stop an Idiocracy-like future, especially with the onset of AI. I really hope it’s not. But I see my own colleagues basically offloading their own critical thinking to ChatGPT and I see how it makes them unable to think for themselves :\ And I worry a lot.




  • I’m not claiming Twitter is great.

    But this is obviously going to fail, always was obviously going to fail. It’s a PR stunt, nothing more.

    Twitter will sue them, they’ll settle for giving up the name and some token fine, and hopefully they’re on the map. Or, their hail mary long shot will pay off and they’ll get to call themselves twitter in which case holy shit they’re golden. That’s the strategy.

    It’s stupid- they’ll lose in court and I doubt whatever they offer is more compelling than what’s already out there.


  • American here. I love my country.

    But they should absolutely turn the screws.

    Canada has always been a good friend to the US, both in peace and in wartime. When we had wildfires Canada sent us aircraft, crews, supplies. When we were at war in Iraq and Afghanistan Canada sent us some of the best sniper teams anywhere. Canada has always been a peacetime friend and trade partner and we exchange a lot of goods, services, and tourism in both directions.

    And then we decide to fuck them over for no reason. We spent 3-4 decades offshoring every bit of American manufacturing and willingly, gleefully, built ourselves a giant trade imbalance because doing so increased shareholder value. Now we realize that might be a bad thing so what do we do? We fuck over our friends, one of the few countries that stood by us through thick and thin. Canada has done nothing to deserve this.

    If I were a Canadian, I’d be right fucking pissed (politely of course) that our 100+ year friend is doing this. And quite frankly, I’d be right.

    So yeah, while I want my country to succeed, in this instance we deserve to fail and we should fail. Canada deserves better than this.




  • This 100%.

    HBM has massive profit margins. It’s also hard as hell to make, as it involves multiple stacked wafers. This vid is a good catchup on that and the rest of this situation.

    China will HAPPILY flood the non-HBM DRAM market with memory ‘only’ 2x as expensive as last year. And every PC maker, automaker, gadget maker, etc will happily buy it because as Valve famously put it, “They give us a price every month or something, and they say ‘you can buy that many’ and it’s yes or no, and if we say no then they never talk to us again.” Source interview. If China says ‘we have consistent price, we have consistent supply, we can meet your needs’ and the quality is decent then it doesn’t matter if it’s slower or DDR4 or whatever people will love them for it.

    And play that ahead.
    The big 3 are focused on HBM and most of their capacity is already sold through 2027
    If China can scale up production of standard DDR4/5 and sell it reliably at 200% of normal price (aka, below current market rates) then there’s less incentive to build fabs. So they will let China have the consumer market with their blessings. And thus China will have made themselves essential in yet another product supply chain.


  • This was easy to predict.

    Chinese government is not stupid. They have a strategy (more so than USA does). Years ago that was to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains. They were successful. Now the goal is to reach parity with Western chipmakers and/or get ahead. It’s happening.

    The AI boom was like a golden gift to them. Semiconductor prices are through the roof. So if they can produce almost anything at all in quantity it will sell for inflated prices.

    While the tech companies of the world jerk each other off with AI, China is building DRAM capacity. CXMT is the first and will not be the last. They will scale quickly. If they have the process perfected they will build a fab in the time it takes USA to conduct the environmental review for the consideration of allowing a permit application to build a fab. They will not build one fab they will build 5 or 10. I’m proud to be American and I love my country but I compare USA to China on the ability to execute large projects like this and China will win every time. We have too much red tape, too many lawsuits and insurance and moving parts. China executes faster and more decisively.

    So give it a year or two and China will have a fleet of pretty good fabs. They will sell memory for way less than what the others do. And then just as China made themselves indispensable for manufacturing, they will make themselves indispensable for DRAM.




  • That’s fun. I’m really glad to know that. Thank you. :\

    Jokes aside- while I realize there’s lots of safety systems in place, this seems like a dangerous culture that’s long due for some change. In aviation, an awful lot of our regulations are written in blood, and we’ve gotten rid of a lot of the ‘we’ve always done it that way’ and ‘Captain always knows best no matter what’ / ‘Always listen to authority’ stuff because it literally kills people.

    I’m curious, if you’re willing to share, why we’ve not seen a major accident due to this sort of culture?


    Also in exchange for this fun information you’ve provided, I have some more fun knowledge…

    Pools. Everybody knows the chlorine kills germs.
    Thing is, chlorine has relatively little odor. When chlorine binds with organic materials it produces chloramine, which has a very distinctive chlorine-y smell. This happens very quickly with urine. In a properly maintained pool, ‘shock’ treatment is regularly done to burn off the chloramine.

    So when you visit a pool and you smell the chlorine, all that means is the pool is badly maintained and/or someone recently peed in it.

    Have a nice day :D