Creator of LULs (a script which helps links to point to your instance)
Come say hi here or over at https://twitch.tv/AzzuriteTV :) I like getting to know more people :)
Play games with me: https://steamcommunity.com/id/azzu
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Joined 3 years ago
Cake day: June 28th, 2023
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The answer depends entirely on what “rarely makes mistakes” means.
If the prediction is correct more than 50.05% of the time, then I would take the mystery box. Expected value = 0.5006 * 1,000,000 = 500,600
If the prediction is correct less than 50.05% of the time, then I would take both: expected value = 1000 + (1 - 0.5004) * 1,000,000 = 500,600
Since “rarely” usually means some value much less than 50%, I would definitely take the mystery box.