Will Iran tolerate this? Or do we think Iran is actually cool with it because now they get to save face by appearing to still posture strongly against the US while making money from their oil again?
I think it’s more likely that they’re finding it difficult to target these ships at the absolute far end of the Strait in the cover of night, probably with a screen of cheaper interceptors in between
US sources might be exaggerating how much they’re getting through so are people who think Iran can just see and hit every dark vessel hugging Oman
Iran is probably cool with it. Closing the straight is all or nothing, it’s a powerful card to play, but ultimately it’s better as a threat than actually using it
Iran doesn’t actually want to cut off the supply of oil, they want leverage. If the flow of oil out of the Gulf stops, eventually the world is going to keep turning. It will do a lot of damage, but eventually either the world is going to find new suppliers or alternatives
This gives them a way to get some oil out without reopening the strait, and in doing so diminishing their credibility in using that card in future negotiations. They also want to continue sell oil to most of their customers, at least enough to maintain relations while continuing to allow global pressure on the US to grow
At any time they can attack a few more tankers using this workaround, all it takes is to increase the perception of risk to levels insurance or investors are willing to underwrite
So yeah… They’re probably happy to look the other way on this
Will Iran tolerate this? Or do we think Iran is actually cool with it because now they get to save face by appearing to still posture strongly against the US while making money from their oil again?
I think it’s more likely that they’re finding it difficult to target these ships at the absolute far end of the Strait in the cover of night, probably with a screen of cheaper interceptors in between
US sources might be exaggerating how much they’re getting through so are people who think Iran can just see and hit every dark vessel hugging Oman
Iran is probably cool with it. Closing the straight is all or nothing, it’s a powerful card to play, but ultimately it’s better as a threat than actually using it
Iran doesn’t actually want to cut off the supply of oil, they want leverage. If the flow of oil out of the Gulf stops, eventually the world is going to keep turning. It will do a lot of damage, but eventually either the world is going to find new suppliers or alternatives
This gives them a way to get some oil out without reopening the strait, and in doing so diminishing their credibility in using that card in future negotiations. They also want to continue sell oil to most of their customers, at least enough to maintain relations while continuing to allow global pressure on the US to grow
At any time they can attack a few more tankers using this workaround, all it takes is to increase the perception of risk to levels insurance or investors are willing to underwrite
So yeah… They’re probably happy to look the other way on this